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Doug Garnett’s Complexity Blog

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About

It was early in 2021 when I began writing a book about lessons from complexity science which affect businesses based on my over 40 years doing business. That Book, The Complexity Paradigm: Using Systems Science to Drive Business Success will be published by Columbia Business School Publishing in January 2027. It is available for pre-order through Columbia University Press or at Amazon.com.

I have arrived at this point along an unusual journey — starting when my family returned from a sojourn to New Jersey in time to be born in Denver, Colorado then grow up at the foot of the Rocky Mountains in Boulder, Colorado. Entering the University of Colorado in music, I shifted to mathematics and studied liberal arts (mostly history and literature) along the way. Upon graduation, I moved to General Dynamics to support their Space Systems division making rockets and missiles while earning my masters degree in Mathematics at UC San Diego (finite element analysis).

Working on rockets, missiles, and the Space Shuttle weren’t enough — so I began my journey into marketing and sales for innovative, new products. After selling and marketing supercomputers for a period, I shifted to consumer products where I settled. I founded my own marketing firm for new product introductions in 1998 and have even directed national television commercials. My firm, Atomic Direct, introduced new products for 20 years including handling Lowe’s Kobalt Tools introductions from 2010 to 2018. Along the way, I explored the visual and creative side of life, studying drawing and painting.

I founded Protonik, LLC in 2018 (after closing Atomic Direct) to build a practice around the full range of marketing needed for innovative new products. In this role I teach, write, and advise a select set of innovative companies (startups or established brands). My teaching career began in 2001 at Portland State University where I have taught ever since.

Protonik also helps build markets for artists — a challenge similar to marketing innovative, new products. In this work I have been a co-conspirator with Timothy Ely, on his APlanetaryCollage.com blog and directed a short documentary about his work (link here). I also help my wife — artist Judith Quinn Garnett — market her work — traditional acrylic paintings on canvas which are embellished with stitch.

Doug’s musings about innovation, marketing, and technology can be found on this blog ,on The Marketing Podcast where he and Shahin Khan look at critical marketing issues of the day, and his commentary as a Braintrust member at RetailWire.com..

Doug lives in Portland, Oregon with Judith and their two sons. When not working, he likes to explore art, music, woodworking, history, books, fly fishing, and the outdoors.

Education

BA – Mathematics, University of Colorado – Boulder
MS – Applied Math, University of California – San Diego
MBA (partial) – Marylhurst University, Lake Oswego, OR

Experience

Portland State University, School of Business Administration—Adjunct professor. 2001-present.
Protonik, LLC – Founder and President
Atomic Direct, LTD – CEO
The Tyee Group, VP-Strategy/Acct Dir.
Floating Point, International Sales & Mktg
General Dynamics, Sr. Software Engineer​

Teaching/Writing/Boards

RetailWire BrainTrust
PSU – School of Business, Adjunct Instructor.
Oregon Entrepreneur Association, Marketing Committee; Startup Education Series
PiePDX Mentor (Oregon)
OTRADI Mentor (Oregon)
Blog at DougGarnett.com and TheShelfPotato.com
“Building Brand with DRTV” (pub. 2011)

TV/Video Awards

Telly Awards (2001-2022)
Davey Awards (2005-2016)
Insurance Marcom “Best TV of 2006”
DMA Echo for TV (1999)

To book Doug for an industry or company lecture, visit the “Request Lecture” page.

©2026 – Doug Garnett – All Rights Reserved

Comments

  • Posted: April 1, 2017 08:27

    Robert Clark

    I was surprised by this statement in your blog post from Nov. 2016 on Amazon's Q3 profits: "It also means (as we see with most digital adventures) that Amazon will likely “pivot” at some point (maybe in 3-5 years) and their retail equivalent market will go away – In the meantime, what kind of damage will they do?" Amazon's retail represents the biggest part of their revenue and it's the signature part of their identity. It would be really surprising if they simply decided to forgo that. Have any other analysts suggested they would eliminate that segment of their business? Bob Clark
    Reply

    • Posted: April 3, 2017 18:46

      Doug Garnett

      Bob - Excellent question and glad I could surprise you. The Wall Street Journal has begun to question how Amazon can continue to lose vast sums of money on the majority of it's revenue. My thought offered in the blog post just takes this the next step. Essentially, in response to the WSJ, Amazon doesn't have too many options. They could seek to reduce that big piece of revenue - but that's not likely a successful strategy. So what they really need to do is find a way to make it profitable. Based on a series of analyses, it does not seem viable for them to make a profit on that chunk of revenue UNLESS they become a primarily brick and mortar company. And, in the months that have passed since I wrote the post, I believe we are seeing them take those steps. Bookstores, convenience stores, local retail outlets... My sense is you think I'm a out on a limb. And you're right - Amazon's phenomenal PR machine has spun quite a story and few are challenging it. But I'm willing to go out on the limb knowing that I'm at least part right. Where they actually end up will be different from what I suggest but ALSO quite different from where Amazon's self-spun mythology tells us. I'm trying to get people to start seriously thinking about Amazon - what's the REAL scoop behind the mythology? Thanks for the question! ...Doug
      Reply

  • Posted: April 16, 2024 07:31

    Nicholas Gruen

    Thanks for this Doug — and good on you for surprising us. Sounds like an interesting thesis. My only reaction to Amazon's "Everything store" idea was that surely they can't make money there because it's all so competitive. But then I thought they were doing something a bit like Uber which is to really just try to grab hold of the front end and then work away at minimising costs and maximising rents to them by commoditising everything beneath them in the value chain. In addition to various economies of scale and scope (including monopsony rent extraction which is not strictly speaking an efficiency) you can think of all products as having a digital front end in marketing and Amazon is going for that — however small a share of total value added it is. And that also gives them the market intelligence to get into some bricks and mortar as Apple did in a smaller way with its stores.
    Reply

    • Posted: March 10, 2025 20:26

      Doug Garnett

      NIcholas — Thanks for your thoughtful reply. Somehow it had eluded my notice. In particular, I've just read about your work in Tyson Yunkaporta's Right Story, Wrong Story. Excellent to cross paths. A great deal of Amazon water has passed below the bridge in the past year. But nothing too fundamentally different. Knowing some former Amazon product line buyers, I remain convinced that they have really never made money on these types of sales — only on AWS, content, advertising, and their own devices. Of course, thats such a broach statement it could never really be proven as numbers can flow pretty liberally around it. Anyway, excellent to cross paths and I've followed your blog. Cheers... Doug Garnett
      Reply

  • Posted: April 2, 2025 13:24

    Nicholas Gruen

    Thanks Doug.
    Reply

  • Posted: July 17, 2026 14:25

    Kevin Lin

    Dear Doug, I've been reading about The Complexity Paradigm, and what strikes me is how well your background fits the book you've written. Creative arts, applied mathematics, market strategy. Thirty years running businesses and introducing consumer products at retail. Clients including Apple, AT&T, Procter & Gamble, and Lowe's. You are not an academic theorist applying complexity science to business from the outside. You are a practitioner who has worked at the highest level and is now articulating the framework that made sense of what you were seeing all along. That is a powerful position for a business author, and it is exactly what readers of this genre look for. The book's argument—that businesses are complex adaptive systems, that the old paradigm of linear thinking and universal answers is obsolete, that managers who grasp the "order hidden within complexity" gain a decisive advantage—is timely. Complexity science is having a moment. From economics to epidemiology to AI, the recognition that the world is interconnected, adaptive, and emergent is reshaping how we think about everything. Your book applies that lens to business in a way that is grounded in real examples: PepsiCo, Boeing, Mattel, Starbucks, General Motors. These are not theoretical case studies. These are companies you understand from the inside. Columbia Business School Publishing is a strong platform, but its primary reach is academic and executive. The broader management audience—middle managers, entrepreneurs, professionals who sense that the old rules don't work but don't know what to replace them with—may need a more deliberate introduction. Your client list alone is a compelling signal of your credibility, and endorsements from leaders at those companies could amplify it further. The book is scheduled for January. Six months is the right window to build the pre-publication visibility that will carry it into the business conversation. I have some thoughts on how to position The Complexity Paradigm for the readers who need it most. If you'd like to learn more about the ideas I have in mind for your book, simply reply with 'Interested,' and I'd be delighted to share a personalized proposal along with a few recommendations tailored to your goals. With respect, Kevin Lin
    Reply